Zika model indicates 25 times more cases in US as had been reported to the CDC

Created August 2016

There's Probably Way More Zika in the United States Than Has Been Counted Atlantic

  • “In a paper that’s still under review for journal publication, they describe computer modeling that suggests there were nearly 30,000 cases of travel-related Zika in the country in mid-June, about 25 times more cases than the 1,200 or so reported by the CDC at the time”

    📄 Download the non-peer reviewed PDF from VitaminDWiki

    Zika infections vs country

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“The bold line and shaded area refer to the estimated median number of infections and 95%CI of the model projections, respectively. Rates include asymptomatic infections.

Note: approximately 1 in 4 Zika bites result in symptoms

Births in which Zika was during first trimester (1-4% might be microcephalic)

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Zika Reproduction vs season (R0) maps

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Comments following a quick read:

  • Many countries are under-reporting, not just the US.

  • Under-reporting is often due to indiviuals not reporting - reasons include

    • Not notice any infection
    • Not think that the infection was anything special
    • Nothing could be done about a Zika infection anyway

See also VitaminDWiki

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Recently changed Virus-Pregnancy pages on VitaminDWiki

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Tags: Virus