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US admits math mistake was made in 2010 in estimating Vitamin D, but will not change recommendations – Nov 2017

Email from Keith Baggerly 11/21/17

Keith Baggerly kabagg at mdanderson.org is the son of Leo and Carol Baggerly of GrassrootsHealth

Just the facts.
About a year ago, concerns were raised about mathematical errors in the
Insitute of Medicine (IOM) report on vitamin D. These errors could have
led to recommended intakes being set too low.

In response, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and
Medicine (NASEM) convened expert panels to review the issue in
two phases. In the first phase, one expert panel was asked to
determine whether or not statistical errors were indeed present.
The second phase would kick in if the first was answered in the
affirmative. In the second phase, another expert panel (with
some overlap with the first panel) would be charged with determining
if and how the IOM report's recommendations should be changed in light
of the errors identified.

The reports from these two phases are now posted on the web page for the original report
http://www.nationalacademies.org/hmd/Reports/2010/Dietary-Reference-Intakes-for-Calcium-and-Vitamin-D.aspx

The links are near the bottom of the page, in the paragraph

> Note: In response to claims of methodological errors in this report after its release, the National Academies undertook a two-phased review process to identify whether errors had been made and if so what effect those errors had on the findings. Here are the reports of the two review panels: Phase I and Phase II.

The Phase I report is here

https://www.nap.edu/resource/13050/Vit%20D%20panel%20report%20final.pdf

The Phase II report is here

https://www.nap.edu/resource/13050/FINAL%20Vitamin%20D%20Phase%20II%20Panel%20Report_11-17-17.pdf

The report has been issued. Keith (Baggerly) is looking in depth which you are certainly encouraged to do as well. It's a big question now as to what we should do. Carole (Baggerly)

The bottom lines:

  • The first panel agreed there were indeed mathematical errors in the IOM report.
  • The second panel, however, found that the errors identified would not have affected the final recommendations made, so these remain unchanged.


On Wed, Nov 22, 2017 at 9:12 AM, Keith Baggerly <kabagg@gmail.com> wrote:
http://www.nationalacademies.org/hmd/Reports/2010/Dietary-Reference-Intakes-for-Calcium-and-Vitamin-D.aspx

The links are near the bottom of the page, in the paragraph

> Note: In response to claims of methodological errors in this report after its release, the National Academies undertook a two-phased review process to identify whether errors had been made and if so what effect those errors had on the findings. Here are the reports of the two review panels: Phase I and Phase II.

The Phase I report is here

https://www.nap.edu/resource/13050/Vit%20D%20panel%20report%20final.pdf

The Phase II report is here

https://www.nap.edu/resource/13050/FINAL%20Vitamin%20D%20Phase%20II%20Panel%20Report_11-17-17.pdf


Comment on the above email from Canada
"How was it not viewed a conflict of interest to have a committee member on the second panel, responsible for determining if RDA should be adjusted, who was the Chair of the committee that produced the initial 2010 IOM report under investigation???"


Comments by Founder of VitaminDWiki, Henry Lahore

The Phase 2 report is an excellent example of bafflegab
   baf·fle·gab: "incomprehensible or pretentious language, especially bureaucratic jargon"
Some interesting phrasing from the Phase II study

  • "This panel accepted as given the choice of bone health as the only health outcome"
  • ". . it is impossible to say with complete certainty whether and/or how the committee’s collective judgment might have changed had the errors not been made"
  • " . . the panel thinks it unlikely that this result would have changed the determination of the RDA for vitamin D/"
  • "The SACN and EFSA reports,. . . used a risk assessment framework and both used the literature review and conclusions of the IOM report as a starting point"
  • "In addition, the extent to which the conclusions of the IOM report influenced the recommendations of the SACN and EFSA reports is unknown."

Very circular reasoning:
1) US decided how much was needed in 2010
2) Europeans made decisions how much to recommend, starting from the US recommendations
3) US in 2017 says US must be right, even if the math was wrong, the Europeans agree with our recommendations
Many problems with SACN and EFSA

  1. The SACN has cherry-picked data;
  2. The SACN has not taken into account the problems with vitamin D intake studies;
  3. The SACN has misinterpreted available data on the effects of genetic polymorphisms on vitamin D requirement;
  4. The SACN has not sufficiently accounted for the effects of increased body weight and use of sunscreens;
  5. The SACN has ignored expert evidence;
  6. The SACN has ignored differences between vitamin D2 and D3;
  7. The SACN has ignore emerging evidence for the role of elevated vitamin D status on reducing the risk of certain cancers;
  8. The SACN has not proposed different recommendations for different racial groups/skin colours,
  9. The SACN has not considered that there are likely to be overlapping risks and benefits;

Reminder: Doctors have at least 10 reasons to be reluctant to increase vitamin D: which has the following quote

  • It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary is dependent upon his not understanding it Upton Sinclair

Many studies have found that even bones need more than 600 IU

They continue to ignore the non-bone benefits of vitamin D

ADHD,  Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis,  ALS,  Alzheimer's,  Antibiotic Use in Seniors,  Asthma,  Autism,  Autoimmune Diseases,   Back pain,  Blood Cell Cancer,   Breast Cancer,   Cardiovascular,  Cholesterol,  Chronic Hives,  Chronic Kidney Disease,  Cluster Headaches,  Congestive Heart Failure (Infants),  COPD,  Crohn's Disease,  C-Section and Pregnancy Risks,  Cystic Fibrosis,  Depression,   Diabetes,  Diabetic Neuropathy,  Eczema,   Falls,  Fatigue,  Fatty Liver (Child),  Fibromyalgia,  Gestational Diabetes,  Gingivitis,  Growing Pains,  Hay Fever,  Heart Attack,  Hemodialysis,  Hepatitis-C,   Hip Fractures,  Hypertension,  Influenza,  Irritable Bowel Syndrome,  Ischemic Stroke,  Knee Osteoarthritis,  Leg Ulcers,   Low Birth Weight,  Lupus,  Male Infertility,   Menstrual Pain,  Metabolic Syndrome,  Middle Ear Infection (Infants),  Mite Allergy,  Multiple Sclerosis,  Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease,  Osteoarthritis,  Parkinson's Disease,  Perinatal Depression,  Pneumonia (Ventilator-associated),  Poor Sleep,  PreDiabetes,  Preeclampsia,  Pre-term Birth,  Prostate Cancer,  Quality of Life,   Raynaud's Pain,   Respiratory Tract Infection,  Restless Leg Syndrome,   Rheumatoid Arthritis,   Rickets,  Sarcopenia,  Sepsis,  Short Neonates,  Sickle Cell,  Stronger Senior Muscles,  Survive ICU,  TB,  Tonsillitis,  Trauma Death,  Traumatic Brain Injury,  Tuberculosis,  Ulcerative Colitis,  Urinary Tract Infection,  Vaginosis,  Vertigo,  Warts,  Weight Loss

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Click on underlined items for details

Health Problem Treat
Prevent
Reduction by Vit DRCT = Randomized Controlled Trial
   * = link to additional RCT
CT = Clinical Trial
HypertensionT
P
149 to 142 mm Hg
HT risk reduced 10X
RCT*  *, 2400 IU.  100,000 IU*
When Vitamin D > 40 ng
Cardiovascular after attack T 32 % fewer deaths CT 1000 IU
Diabetes Type 1 P 85 % 12,000 kids, 2000 IU
Diabetes Type 2T 62 % RCT* CRP reduction, 4000 IU
Injection is far better - RCT *
RCT 50,000 IU/2weeks + probiotics
RCT 5,000 IU daily 6 months
Back Pain T 95 %
reduced 50%
5000/10000 IU
60,000 IU weekly
Influenza P 90 % RCT *, 2000 IU
Falls P 50%RCT, 100,000 IU monthly
RCT with Meals on Wheels 2016
Hip Fractures P 30 % RCT * 800 IU
Rickets P 98 % Turkey, 400 IU
NOT RCT, given to all children
Raynaud's Syndrome T 40 % RCT, visual scale, 20000 IU Avg
Menstrual pain P 76 % RCT, 7000 IU Avg,
70% reduction 2018
PMS reduced by half
Pregnancy risks P 50 % RCT, 4000 IU
C-section, unplanned P 50 % RCT, 4000 IU, small study
Low birth weight P 60 % RCT * 1000 IU of D2
TBP 60 % RCT, 800 IU
Breast Cancer P 60 % RCT, 1100 IU (2007)
Rheumatoid Arthritis pain T 40 % RCT, 500 IU, added to prescription
Cystic Fibrosis T 75 %
2nd study improved
RCT, pilot 4X fewer deaths 250,000 IU
RCT, pilot 8,200 IU
Chronic Kidney T 90 to 70 PTH RCT, 3500 IU,
Respiratory Tract Infection P 63 % 3 RCT, 4000 IU 1 year 2nd 2000/800 IU
20,000 IU weekly
Lupus T
T
zero flares
Pain reduced
Loading then 100,000 IU monthly,
RCT too
RCT 4,000 IU
Sickle Cell T Less pain
RCT, up to 100,000 IU/week
Leg ulcer healing T 4X faster RCT, 50,0000 IU/week, small study
Traumatic Brain Injury T 2X RCT, 20,0000 IU/day with progesterone
Parkinson's DiseaseT StabilizedRCT, 1200 IU/day
Multiple SclerosisP
T
68%
95% were CURED
RCT, 7100 IU prevent pre-MS ==> MS
20,000 to 140,000 IU/day
Congestive Heart Failure T 90 % RCT, 1000 IU infants (also: Adults, not RCT)
Middle Ear Infection P 30 % RCT, 1000 IU infants
GingivitisT 88 %RCT, 2000 IU
Muscle in seniors T 17 % more muscle RCT, 4000 IU
Antibiotic use when >70y T 47 % RCT, 60,000 IU monthly
Infants tallerBenefit1 cm tall RCT, 50,000 IU weekly,
for 8 weeks while pregnant
Gestational Diabetes T Reduced 3X RCT, 2 doses of 50,000 IU
After Heart Attack T +6% ejection fraction RCT, 800,000 IU one time
Prostate Cancer T Fewer +cores RCT, 4000 IU (2012)
Asthma P   T Reduced symptoms RCT, 60K IU/month;
RCT 50K IU/week
Need good D at 4 weeks into preg.
Depression T Reduced RCT 300,000 IU injection
RCT 1500 IU helped Prozac
RCT 50,000 IU weekly, elderly
Low vitamin D
while breastfed
P All infants > 20 mg RCT, 5,000 IU
Fibromyalgia T Half of many still has FibroRCT, 30-48 ng
RCT 50K IU/week
Hives, Chronic T Reduced 40% RCT, 4000 IU added
CholesterolT Reduced 4 mg RCT, 400 IU + Ca
Weight Loss T lost 5 more lbs RCT, 2000 IU +diet +exercise
Gestational DiabetesP 40% RCT * , 5,000 IU
Chronic Obstructive
Pulmonary Disease
T 17X improvement CT, 50,000 IU weekly
RCT 100,000 IU monthly
Asthma T 1/2 Asthma attacks RCT >42 mg of vitamin D
Quality of Life (QoL) T Nursing Home QoL CT, 4,000 IU in daily bread
Death of Critically Ill
Patients
T 20% increase in survivability RCT 540 K IU loading than 90K monthly
Restless Leg Syndrome T Score 26 ==> 10 CT, Vitamin D dose size
not stated in abstract
Hepatitis-C T Aided normal drugs RCT 2.000 IU
Crohn's disease T improved when > 30 ng
2nd study fewer relapses
RCT 2,000 IU
10,000 IU RCT
Pre-term birth P 2.5X decrease, also: fewer
c-section & better Apgar
RCT 2,000 IU India
Cluster headaches T CH eliminated in 60% 10,000 IU, Mg, Omega-3, etc
Autism T 80% improved CT 300 IU/kg/day for 3 months
PreDiabetes T ~20% reduced RCT 60,000 IU/month
Weight loss:
Overweight and Obese
T 12 lbs in 6 months RCT 100,000 IU/month
Sarcopenia = muscle loss T 27% increase RCT 1,000 IU
Growing Pains T 60% decrease ~100,000 IU/month -NOT RCT
2nd study, similar results
Osteoarthritis pain T 60% decrease 50,000 IU/weekly - NOT RCT
ALS T helped 2,000 IU - NOT RCT, given to all
Vertigo T 3X reduction if raised > 10ng 600,000 IU load, then maint.
NOT RCT, given to all
Warts T 80% eliminated injection NOT RCT
60,000 IU/injection
Metabolic Syndrome P reduced 44% when VitD
increased by 30 ng
NOT RCT, given to all
Hay fever P reduced 48% RCT   1,000 IU for 30 days
Preeclampsia P Recurrance cut in half
3 RCT 3.6 X less likely if > 30 ng
50,000 IU every 2 weeks
4,000 IU daily
Blood cell cancer
Multiple Myeloma
T Survival 90% vs 50%10,000 IU/week
NOT RCT, given to all
Irritable Bowel Syndrome T Reduced3,000 IU spray RCT
Urinary Tract Infection P 50% reduction RCT 20,000 IU weekly
Mite Allergy P 5X reductionRCT 2,000 IU preg, 800 IU child
Perinatal depression
(depression near birth)
T 50% reduction RCT 2,000 IU for just a few weeks
Vaginosis T 10X reductionRCT 2,000 IU
Eczema T Reduced2 RCT 1,600 IU
Non-Alcoholic
Fatty Liver Disease
T Reduced RCT 20,000 IU weekly
Knee Osteoartiritis T Pain Reduced RCT 60,000 IU monthly after loading dose
Tuberculosis T Faster Recovery RCT single 450,000 IU dose
Stroke - Ischemic T Faster Recovery RCT single 600,000 IU injection
RCT single 300,000 IU injection
Sepsis T Reduce ICU and Hospital
length of stay by 7 days each
RCT 400,000 IU
Trauma deaths T 50% fewer deaths Vitamin D & Glutamine
NOT RCT, given to all
Hemodialysis patients T helped 50,000 IU weekly NOT RCT, given to all
Fatty liver - child T 2 X reduction RCT  Vitamin D & DHA
Fatigue T Reduced 100,000 IU single dose
NOT RCT, given to all
Sleep Disorders T Nicely treated RCT  50.000 IU bi-weekly
Pneumonia
(Ventilator-associated)
T RCT   Death rate cut in half300,000 IU injection
Infertile males T birth rate doubled RCT   300,000 IU + maint
Waist size T Waist size reduced 3 cm 100,000 IU loading + maint for 6 months
for those with Metabolic Syndrome
NOT RCT, given to all
Attention Deficient
Hyperactivity Disorder
T Reduced
Reduced
RCT  3,000 IU for 12 weeks
RCT  50,000 IU weekly
Alcoholic liver cirrhosis T improved survival1,000 IU of vitamin D NOT RCT
Diabetic nephropathy T Reduced HOMA-IR, FRS RCT 50,000 IU weekly
Ulcerative Colitis T Reduced 60% RCT 50,000 IU nano daily for a week
Obese weight loss T Lost 3X more pounds $10 of Vitamin D added to
  calorie restriction & walking
Endometriosis T Nicely treated RCT  50.000 IU bi-weekly
Diabetic Wounds T 4X more likely to heal RCT  6,400 daily
Alzheimer's T Often reverseEach person gets a different amount of
Vit D, Omega-3, B12, Iron, etc
Autoimmune P Decrease 30% RCT  Vit D + Omega-3
Smoking T reduce problems RCT  50,000 bi-weekly
Tonsillitis T Virtually eliminated RCT  50,000 weekly



Most proofs are RCT (Randomized Controlled Trials), where not even the doctor knows who gets it vitamin D

  • 2 are meta-analyses of multiple RCTs
  • Vitamin D was given to ALL infants in the entire country (Rickets) - not an RCT
  • In several studies, researchers felt that it was unethical not to give vitamin D to everyone
  • In some studies, the dose size varied with the needs of the person (overweight, etc)
  • In some studies, the COFACTORS were adjusted to the needs of the patients
    • Curing requires the dose size and cofactors to be adjusted to the needs of each patient.


Many Clinical Trials have not found a benefit because of one or more of the following failures:

  1. Fails to use a large enough dose of vitamin D (often < 1,100 IU)
    The Even larger dose needed if: 1) obese, 2) poor gut, 3) sick (many diseases consume lots of vitamin D)
  2. Fails to have given vitamin D for a long enough time (a few RCT lasted less than 5 weeks)
  3. Fails to have given Vitamin D frequently enough. At least every 2 months for D3) - and at least weekly for D2
    Note: Infrequent dosing also causes unbalancing of the body's chemistry
  4. Fails to provide a loading dose, or had too short a duration to restore the vitamin D levels
  5. Fails to use D3 form, instead uses the less effective D2 form
  6. Fails to have a healthy range of Calcium or other important cofactors (especially for bone-related trials
    Also, differences in Magnesium can result in 30% change in response to vitamin D
    Magnesium is dependent on water, food, supplements
  7. Fails to notice the pre-existing vitamin D levels - only those who are low will likely show a benefit
  8. Fails to notice how/when the vitamin D was taken (which can change the response by as much as 2X)
  9. Fails to report on compliance (in one case 40% of the participants did not take the supplements consistently)

Many Meta-Analyses also do not find a benefit because one or more of the above failures
In addition, many meta-analysis average together ALL of the trials
Imagine a story about a meta-analysis of aspirin (which has never been done)
   There would be scores of RCT for aspirin not working with 3 mg doses
   There would be a many RCT of aspirin not working with 30 mg doses
   There would be a few studies of aspirin WORKING with 300+ mg doses
   There would be many studies of small amounts of Willow bark (Vitamin D2 instead of Vitamin D3)
   Then there would be a meta-analysis of aspirin and Willow Bark
   - That meta-analysis would conclude that aspirin and Willow bark do not work.

While about 200 RCTs will be published during 2014, I anticipate only adding 50 to the proofs table due to the reasons listed above
   Also, some trials will not get started due to lack of people willing to go for years with < 500 IU of vitamin D


See also VitaminDWiki: Random Controlled Trials with vitamin D  intervention

More intervention trials for Vitamin D than for the TOTAL of Vitamins A + C + K combined

Vitamin D = 2199, Others = 1803 Vitamin A 702 + Vitamin C 768 + Vitamin K 333    as of Aug 2020

See also VitaminDWiki


Less Sun Less D Less Health
CLICK ON chart for more information and translation

Vitamin D is especially needed during pregnancy

Problem
Vit. D
Reduces
Evidence
0. Chance of not conceiving3.4 times Observe
1. Miscarriage 2.5 times Observe
2. Pre-eclampsia 3.6 timesRCT
3. Gestational Diabetes 3 times RCT
4. Good 2nd trimester sleep quality 3.5 times Observe
5. Premature birth 2 times RCT
6. C-section - unplanned 1.6 timesObserve
     Stillbirth - OMEGA-3 4 timesRCT - Omega-3
7. Depression AFTER pregnancy 1.4 times RCT
8. Small for Gestational Age 1.6 times meta-analysis
9. Infant height, weight, head size
     within normal limits
RCT
10. Childhood Wheezing 1.3 times RCT
11. Additional child is Autistic 4 times Intervention
12.Young adult Multiple Sclerosis 1.9 timesObserve
13. Preeclampsia in young adult 3.5 timesRCT
14. Good motor skills @ age 31.4 times Observe
15. Childhood Mite allergy 5 times RCT
16. Childhood Respiratory Tract visits 2.5 times RCT

RCT = Randomized Controlled Trial


Also, The Vitamin D Receptor limits the amount of Vitamin D in the blood actually gets to the tissue

The risk of 48+ diseases at least double with poor Vitamin D Receptor


Short URL = is.gd/dproof

Short URL = is.gd/VitDMM


Created by admin. Last Modification: Wednesday May 22, 2019 22:22:17 GMT-0000 by admin. (Version 26)