The following is an e-mail from Thomas to a vitamin D researcher
I wrote you yesterday regarding NASA’s quandary over the 100 year solar cycle and its effects on the upper atmosphere in regards to extreme ultraviolet.<o:p>~~navy:<o:p>
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Researchers are puzzling over a sharper-than-expected collapse of Earth's upper atmosphere during the deep solar minimum of 2008-09. <o:p>
FULL STORY at http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere
So there was less atmosphere for UV to penetrate and you would expect more UVB reaching the ground, but the sun is not a steady producer of UVB.<o:p><o:p>
The impact of Solar cycle on living organisms has been investigated (see chronobiology). Some researchers claim to have found connections with human health.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#cite_note-18#cite_note-18|19][http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#cite_note-19#cite_note-19|20]<o:p>
The amount of UVBlight at 300 nm reaching the Earth varies by as much as 400% over the solar cycle due to variations in the protective ozone layer. In the stratosphere, ozone is continuously regeneratedby the splittingof O2molecules by ultraviolet light. During a solar minimum, the decrease in ultraviolet light received from the Sun leads to a decrease in the concentration of ozone, allowing increased UVB to penetrate to the Earth's surface.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#cite_note-20#cite_note-20|21]<o:p><o:p><o:p>
Over the course of the 11 year solar cycle UVB output of the sun varies 300% from solar minima to solar maxima during that 11 years.<o:p><o:p>
With a temperature of 5870 kelvins, the photosphereof the Sun emits very little short-wavelength radiation, such as extreme ultraviolet(EUV) and X-rays. However, hotter upper layers of the Sun's atmosphere (chromosphereand corona) emit more short-wavelength radiation. Since the upper atmosphere is not homogeneous and contains significant magnetic structure, the solar UV, EUVand X-ray flux varies markedly in the course of the solar cycle.<o:p><o:p>
This is because increased sunspots create more UV, fewer sunspots less UV. According to NASA;<o:p><o:p>
The extra ultraviolet (UV) and X-ray radiation created by the magnetic field around sunspots causes the Earth's atmosphere to heat up and expand. <o:p><o:p>
Now imagine how a 100 year solar cycle may affect the UVB output of sun at a 100 year solar minima.<o:p><o:p>
The 100 year sunspot cycle can be seen in this graph. The last minima was in 1906 and I am not convinced we have hit minima again yet;<o:p>
So with the current deep minima the planet responds with a collapsing upper atmosphere allowing more UVB to enter when there is less UVB being generated.<o:p><o:p>
NASA is confused by the amount of collapse because the accepted solar model is incorrect. Their model is based on self sustained solar fusion, when it is more likely the solar variation is tied to variation by plasma inputs from sources outside our solar system (Electric Universe Theory).<o:p><o:p>
You can even overlay these inputs to approximate the solar progression due to convergence of various solar cycles simultaneously running. Just as there is an 11 year cycle there are longer and shorter cycles running.<o:p><o:p>
Remember the global cooling scare of the 1970’s? Note how below the multiple solar cycles converged to produce a cooling effect. Then look at the more recent multiple convergence of the cycles at a higher level producing the current global warming scare.<o:p>
I know you are only interested in the UVB vitamin D connection as related to human biology, but there are larger drivers of solar UVB production that you should enjoy learning about.<o:p><o:p>
I predict as the 100 year solar cycle continues to bottom out there will be less UVB available and the planet will again collapse the upper atmosphere to allow more UVB in, but there are limits as to how much it can collapse, and the dearth of UVB will produce more vitamin D deficiency, and this will allow more cases of influenza, more cases of influenza allows for more virulent strains of influenza to emerge, and eventually a Spanish Influenza like strain of 1918 will re-emerge.<o:p><o:p>
If you overlay influenza epidemics and pandemics on the above solar AP progression it looks like this;<o:p>
As you can see the influenza epidemics in the past 60 years all follow a drop in the solar cycles. So you ask; What about 1947 and 1996 there was a drop then…? These outbreaks are just less well known…<o:p><o:p>
Extreme Intrasubtypic Antigenic Variation and the Pseudopandemic of 1947 (H1N1)<o:p>
In late 1946, an outbreak of influenza occurred in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Japanand <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Koreain American troops. It spread in 1947 to other military bases in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States, including <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Fort Monmouth, <st1:state w:st="on">New Jersey, where the prototype FM-1 strain was isolated. The epidemic was notable because of the initial difficulty in establishing its cause as an influenza A virus because of its considerable antigenic difference from previous influenza A viruses. Indeed, for a time it was identified as "influenza A prime" (22). The 1947 epidemic has been thought of as a mild pandemic because the disease, although globally distributed, caused relatively few deaths. However, as a medical officer at <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placetype w:st="on">Fort<st1:placename w:st="on">Monmouth, I can personally attest that there was nothing mild about the illness in young recruits in whom signs and symptoms closely matched those of earlier descriptions of influenza (23).<o:p><o:p>
Update: influenza activity--worldwide, 1996.<o:p>
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).<o:p>
Abstract<o:p>
From October 1995 through August 1996, influenza activity occurred at moderate to severe levels worldwide. Epidemic activity in Europe, Asia, and <st1:place w:st="on">North Americawas associated with influenza A(H1N1) and influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Influenza A(H1N1) viruses caused an epidemic in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Japanand predominated in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada, most regions of the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States, and a few countries in <st1:place w:st="on">Europe. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated in most European countries, <st1:country-region w:st="on">China, and some regions of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States. Influenza B viruses were isolated in association with sporadic cases throughout most of the world. This report summarizes influenza activity worldwide during March-August 1996, indicating that, during these months, influenza activity occurred at peak levels in the Southern Hemisphere.<o:p><o:p><o:p>
Personally, I believe the current Swine Flu is the equivalent to the 1889 Asiatic Flu which preceded the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. That gives us very few years to correct the human vitamin D deficiency which drives virulent influenza strains driven by solar UVB production deficiencies.<o:p><o:p>
Here is that old timeline which should approximately repeat based on solar cycle convergence at lower levels;<o:p><o:p>
- The "Asiatic Flu", 1889–1890, was first reported in May 1889 in Bukhara, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Uzbekistan. By October, it had reached Tomskand the Caucasus. It rapidly spread west and hit North Americain December 1889, South America in February–April 1890, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Indiain February-March 1890, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Australiain March–April 1890. It was purportedly caused by the H2N8type of flu virus. It had a very high attack and mortality rate. About 1 million people died in this pandemic."[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-68#cite_note-68|69]<o:p><o:p>
The "Spanish flu", 1918–1919. First identified early in March 1918 in US troops training at Camp Funston, Kansas. By October 1918, it had spread to become a worldwide pandemic on all continents, and eventually infected about one-third of the world's population(or ?500 million persons).[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-Taubenberger-69#cite_note-Taubenberger-69|70]Unusually deadly and virulent, it ended nearly as quickly as it began, vanishing completely within 18 months. In six months, some 50 million were dead;[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-Taubenberger-69#cite_note-Taubenberger-69|70]some estimates put the total of those killed worldwide at over twice that number.[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-70#cite_note-70|71]About 17 million died in <st1:country-region w:st="on">India, 675,000 in the United States[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-71#cite_note-71|72]and 200,000 in the UK. The virus was recently reconstructed by scientists at the CDCstudying remains preserved by the Alaskan permafrost. They identified it as a type of H1N1virus.[citation needed]